AMRO releases AREO 2026 on ASEAN+3 growth and energy shock risks

AMRO has released its ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2026, keeping its growth forecast for the region at 4.0% in both 2026 and 2027.

The regional forecaster said ASEAN+3 entered 2026 from a position of strength, helped by low inflation and improved external buffers. But it warned that energy-supply disruptions, including those tied to the Middle East conflict, have increased downside risks to the outlook.

AMRO said the region is better positioned than during previous energy shocks because it is more energy-efficient, less dependent on oil and still has policy space to respond if conditions worsen.

The report arrives as markets continue to track the fallout from tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Iran conflict. AMRO’s assessment adds a regional economic lens to that market story, highlighting how energy prices could affect inflation, trade and growth across ASEAN+3.

Corroborating coverage from regional outlets reported the same 4.0% forecast and the warning that energy shock risks are rising.

The new outlook suggests a stable baseline for growth, but AMRO made clear that the balance of risks has shifted lower if energy disruptions persist.