Brazil’s mid-April consumer prices undershoot forecasts ahead of rate decision

Brazil’s mid-April consumer prices rose less than economists expected, adding to pressure on the central bank as it meets to decide the next move in interest rates.

The Brazilian statistics agency IBGE said on April 28 that the IPCA-15 inflation index rose 0.89% in April from the previous month and 4.37% over 12 months. Reuters reported that both figures were below market forecasts.

The release landed just ahead of the Banco Central do Brasil’s April 28-29 Copom meeting. The central bank had left the Selic target rate at 14.75% after its March meeting, and markets are watching for another step in the easing cycle.

The latest inflation reading gives policymakers a fresh data point as they weigh how quickly to cut borrowing costs. A lower-than-expected print can support a rate cut, but the central bank is also balancing inflation risks and the broader policy outlook.

The Copom meeting is expected to determine not only whether the Selic is cut, but also how forcefully the bank signals future easing. The official statement later this week will show whether the central bank sees room for a faster pace or opts for caution.

The April figure is the most immediate sign yet that inflation pressures may be easing, but the central bank is still likely to focus on whether that improvement is durable enough to justify continued cuts.