Can $100 million overcome a Trump endorsement? What to watch in Tuesday's elections

Tuesday's primaries and runoffs in Georgia, Alabama and Oklahoma are a fresh test of Donald Trump's influence inside the Republican Party, and of whether money, local alliances and party faction fights can offset it.

The biggest question is in Georgia, where Trump-backed candidates are facing opponents with their own sources of strength. One race pits a Trump endorsement against more than $100 million in self-funding. Another matches a Trump-backed House member against a candidate backed by outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp.

Georgia's clearest test

Georgia Republicans are voting in runoffs for U.S. Senate, governor and secretary of state, along with contests for lieutenant governor, labor commissioner and state school superintendent. The state has become the clearest gauge of whether Trump's backing still dominates GOP primary politics or whether other forces can compete.

In the Senate runoff, Rep. Mike Collins is facing former football coach Derek Dooley. Trump endorsed Collins, while Kemp backed Dooley, turning the race into a proxy fight between the former president's political brand and the governor's wing of the party.

The governor's runoff is the sharper money-versus-endorsement matchup. Lt. Gov. Burt Jones has Trump's endorsement, and Kemp also backed him late in the race. His opponent, businessman Rick Jackson, has spent more than $100 million on his campaign, according to AP.

That amount of self-funding has kept Jackson in the race despite the power of Trump's endorsement and the support of the state's Republican establishment. The outcome will help show whether extraordinary spending can overcome a combination of national and state-level backing.

Georgia's broader ballot also reflects the party's internal fractures, especially around the 2020 election and the direction of the state GOP. The runoff set-up itself came after no candidate won outright in the May 19 primary.

Early voting for the June 16 runoff was already underway by June 8 and ran through June 12. Polls are scheduled to close at 7 p.m. ET, according to AP Decision Notes.

Alabama's Senate runoff

Alabama also has a high-profile Republican runoff for an open U.S. Senate seat. Trump-backed Rep. Barry Moore is facing former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson.

Moore led the first round with nearly 40% of the vote to Hudson's 25%, but the runoff still matters because it will determine which candidate carries the GOP banner in November for an open seat.

The Alabama ballot also includes a Democratic Senate runoff between Everett Wess and Dakarai Larriett, though the main national test remains on the Republican side.

Oklahoma's open-seat races

Oklahoma is another test of Trump's influence, though the dynamics are different. Trump endorsed Rep. Kevin Hern for the open U.S. Senate seat and former state Sen. Mike Mazzei in the governor's race.

AP reported that Trump's backing of Hern helped keep major challengers out of the Senate contest. In the governor's race, AP said Trump's late endorsement of Mazzei increased the chance of an August runoff if no candidate clears 50%.

That makes Oklahoma another useful read on whether Trump's endorsement can clear a field, strengthen a front-runner or merely shape the next round of voting.

Why it matters

The stakes go beyond Tuesday's results. The winners in Georgia and Alabama will help set the Republican ticket for November, including key Senate races. In Georgia, the governor's and Senate nominees will also enter general-election campaigns against major Democratic nominees.

A Trump-endorsed win would reinforce the durability of his endorsement power in Republican primaries. A Trump-endorsed loss, especially against a heavily self-funded opponent, would undercut the idea that his backing is decisive everywhere.

Georgia remains the most revealing test because it combines all the ingredients at once: a Trump endorsement, a competing Kemp endorsement, a massive self-funder and several other party races still shaped by the same internal split.

For now, the races should be treated as live tests rather than final judgments. The next developments to watch are the first results, the margins in each race and whether any contest moves toward a recount or another runoff.