OPEC+ raises May oil output while Trump escalates threats over Strait of Hormuz

Oil markets are being pulled in opposite directions after OPEC+ agreed to raise output for May while renewed U.S.-Iran tensions kept supply fears elevated.

On April 5, eight OPEC+ countries agreed to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in May 2026. In its statement, OPEC said the group would continue to monitor market conditions and retain flexibility to pause or reverse the phase-out of voluntary cuts if needed.

The same statement also warned that attacks on infrastructure or disruption of maritime routes can increase market volatility.

That warning matters because the Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point for traders. On April 5, President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran’s critical infrastructure if the strait is not reopened. AP reported on April 6 that mediators have circulated a 45-day ceasefire proposal that includes reopening the waterway, while new attacks and missile fire continued in the region.

The combination of higher OPEC+ supply and geopolitical risk has left commodities markets sensitive to every new headline. Even with the May increase, any disruption to shipping through Hormuz could quickly outweigh the additional barrels.

For now, the market signal is mixed: producers are adding supply, but traders are still pricing in the possibility of a sharper shock if the Iran crisis worsens.