Egypt economic outlook trimmed slightly due to Iran war: Reuters poll

Economists have trimmed Egypt’s growth outlook slightly as the Iran war pushes up energy prices and adds inflation pressure, according to a Reuters poll published on April 26.

The poll of 12 economists was conducted from April 8 to 23 and cut median growth forecasts for Egypt’s fiscal years 2025/26 and 2026/27 to 4.6% from 4.9% in January. Reuters said the conflict could also weigh on tourism, remittances and Suez Canal tolls.

The poll lands as Egypt is already facing a tougher inflation backdrop. Official data showed annual urban inflation rose to 15.2% in March from 13.4% in February. Egypt’s central bank has already lowered its FY2025/26 growth forecast to 4.9% from 5.1%, citing the war among the risks.

The IMF has also cut its own forecast. In its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, it lowered Egypt’s 2026 growth estimate to 4.2%, saying the Middle East war is disrupting oil prices, trade and confidence across the region.

Why the outlook is weakening

The Reuters poll points to a familiar chain reaction: higher energy prices feed into inflation, while regional instability can hit trade, travel and foreign-exchange inflows.

For Egypt, that means the conflict is being felt not only through direct price pressures but also through the sectors that help support growth.

What comes next

The next signals will come from official Egyptian economic data and any further policy moves by the central bank. If energy prices stay elevated, forecasters may revise growth and inflation expectations again.