El Niño begins, with NOAA and WMO warning of stronger weather extremes

El Niño conditions have officially begun, US forecasters said, marking the start of a climate pattern that can reshape weather far beyond the tropical Pacific.

The development was reported on Thursday, June 11, 2026, after weeks of warnings that the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation was becoming increasingly likely. Multiple outlets said the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center and NOAA had confirmed the change.

The immediate concern is not just that El Niño is under way, but that it may strengthen quickly. AP reported that NOAA sees a 63% chance the event becomes one of the strongest on record, with comparisons being made to the 1997 El Niño.

What forecasters say now

El Niño is one of the main drivers of global weather shifts. When the tropical Pacific warms, it can alter rainfall, storm tracks and temperature patterns across several continents at once.

That is why the official onset matters now. A stronger El Niño can increase the odds of heat, flooding, drought and wildfire in different places at the same time, even as it reduces the chances of damaging weather in others.

The World Meteorological Organization had already warned earlier in June that El Niño had a high chance of forming later in the season. That earlier guidance helped set expectations that the Pacific signal was strengthening quickly.

Some coverage also noted that the event appears to be arriving earlier than usual, which adds to concern about how long it may last and how intense it could become.

Atlantic and Pacific hurricane outlooks

One of the clearest near-term implications is for the Atlantic hurricane season.

The Washington Post reported in May that NOAA's Atlantic outlook pointed to below-normal activity in part because of anticipated El Niño conditions. Forecasters say the pattern can suppress Atlantic storm formation, though it does not eliminate the risk of landfalling storms.

The flip side is that El Niño can favor more storm activity in the eastern Pacific. That can raise flood risk for some areas even as the Atlantic becomes less active overall.

Regional impacts

Forecasters are watching for heavier rain in parts of western South America, where El Niño can shift moisture patterns and heighten flood concerns.

They also expect hotter and drier conditions in parts of India and Australia. Those changes can strain agriculture, water supplies and power systems.

The broader warning is that a strong El Niño can amplify already elevated global temperatures. Some coverage said the 2026-27 period could end up among the hottest on record if the event intensifies as expected.

That risk is one reason scientists and weather agencies are treating the pattern as more than a routine seasonal swing. El Niño's natural effects can combine with a warmer baseline climate to sharpen extremes.

What comes next

The next official updates will matter because they should show whether the event strengthens, how long it is likely to last and whether forecasters change their probability estimates.

The main unknowns are the pace of intensification and whether the strongest impacts land at the severe end of current forecasts. Forecasters will also be watching whether the Atlantic hurricane outlook changes as the season progresses.

For now, the central message is straightforward: El Niño is officially underway, and it is already reshaping the outlook for storms, rainfall, drought and heat in multiple parts of the world.