EVG warns Italo entry could cut smaller cities off Germany's long-distance rail network

Germany's rail union EVG says Italo's planned entry into the country's long-distance market could push smaller cities out of ICE and IC service if scarce train paths are concentrated on the most profitable routes.

According to the union's first analysis, at least 16 cities could be affected. The reporting names Augsburg, Ingolstadt and Bamberg among the places that could lose long-distance stops.

The warning comes as Italo, the Italian operator formally known as Nuovo Trasporto Viaggiatori, is preparing a possible start in Germany from 2028. In the coverage behind the union's warning, the company is planning to begin on the Munich-Frankfurt-Cologne-Dortmund and Munich-Berlin-Hamburg corridors.

What the union is saying

EVG says its figure is not a final list. A union spokesperson said the analysis is only a first pass and includes only stations where the union is currently confident that the effects would be significant.

That makes the number of 16 a minimum rather than a full picture. It also leaves open how many other cities might be affected if Italo's operations are approved and expanded beyond the first corridors under discussion.

The core concern is not only competition on the main lines. EVG argues that if a new entrant takes the most attractive long-distance slots, existing operators may have less room to keep less profitable connections in smaller and medium-sized cities.

The timing and the chronology

The dispute has developed in stages. On June 2, Bahn chief Evelyn Palla warned of what she called uncontrolled competition in long-distance rail and pressed for better policy conditions.

On June 7, earlier reporting said Italo was seeking long-term usage rights and reserved capacity shares, with the applications sitting before the Federal Network Agency.

On June 14, the new EVG analysis sharpened the debate by tying the planned 2028 market entry to a concrete regional risk: the possible loss of ICE and IC service for at least 16 cities.

Trains, tracks and oversight

The issue turns on access to track capacity, not just train services. Italo wants train paths from DB InfraGO, the Deutsche Bahn infrastructure arm that allocates capacity under the supervision of the Federal Network Agency.

That makes the regulator central to the dispute. Decisions over long-term access rights and reserved capacity shares will help determine whether new competitors can enter the market without squeezing out other services.

The policy question is whether liberalisation in long-distance rail can be managed in a way that preserves network coverage. EVG and Deutsche Bahn say the danger is that a focus on lucrative trunk routes could weaken service elsewhere in the system.

Reactions from Bahn and Bavaria

Deutsche Bahn is warning that a stronger focus on profitable routes could mean less long-distance service in the regions. The company argues that if the best paths go to competitors, the wider network may lose traffic and frequency.

Bahn chief Evelyn Palla has also called for better framework conditions and warned against an unguided form of competition in long-distance rail. Her argument is that competition itself is not the problem, but that it needs rules that protect the wider network.

Bavaria's transport minister Christian Bernreiter has voiced a similar concern. He said competition for train paths could endanger local and regional service and could lead to further restrictions if capacity becomes tighter.

Why the stakes are high

The conflict goes beyond one operator's market entry. It cuts to how Germany allocates a scarce public resource: rail capacity.

If mainline slots are tied up by competing long-distance operators, the broader system could face pressure on connections that are less profitable but important for cities outside the biggest hubs. That is why EVG is linking the Italo plans to a wider debate about service in the area and not just on the main corridors.

The debate also has implications for the political acceptance of competition in rail. If liberalisation is seen as benefiting only the busiest intercity routes, pressure will rise for rules that oblige new entrants to contribute more clearly to coverage in the regions.

What happens next

A key open question is whether Italo will respond publicly to the EVG analysis and the wider criticism from Bahn and Bavaria.

Another is whether the Federal Network Agency will comment on the pending capacity questions or rule on the applications for long-term use rights and reserved shares.

It also remains unclear when EVG or Bahn may publish the full methodology behind the analysis and the complete list of stations they believe are at risk. For now, the public dispute is centered on a single claim: that a new long-distance competitor could improve choice on the main axes while leaving smaller cities with fewer or no ICE and IC links.