Finance body says Africa faces an 86 million tonne fuel shortfall by 2040

Africa Finance Corporation says Africa could face an 86 million tonne fuel shortfall by 2040, warning that the continent remains heavily dependent on imported refined fuel.

The warning was published on April 23 in AFC’s latest infrastructure reporting and was echoed by multiple outlets the same day. AFC said the Iran war exposed how vulnerable Africa’s fuel supply chains can be when global disruptions hit.

According to the report, Africa still imports most of its refined fuel. AFC says that leaves the continent exposed to shortages, price swings and wider logistics problems if external supply routes are disrupted.

The estimate adds to growing pressure on African governments and energy planners to expand refining, storage and distribution capacity at home. AFC’s report does not appear to include a country-by-country breakdown in the materials reviewed, but it frames the shortfall as a continent-wide risk.

The new warning is part of a broader infrastructure and financing message from AFC: Africa needs stronger domestic systems to reduce reliance on external flows and improve resilience to shocks.