France, Belgium and the Netherlands saw about 3,700 excess deaths in the heatwave

The late-June heatwave that swept across western Europe appears to have caused about 3,700 excess deaths in France, Belgium and the Netherlands, according to preliminary official and government-linked counts reported on July 3 and 4.

The figures are not final. Officials in France said their tally was still incomplete, and the Belgian and Dutch numbers cited in reporting were also provisional. Even so, the three-country total points to a major public-health impact beyond the immediate dangers of heatstroke and dehydration.

France's updated estimate

France’s public health agency, Santé publique France, estimated 2,025 excess deaths between June 22 and June 28, after a record late-June heatwave.

The agency said the weekly figure represented a 29.1% increase and warned it remained incomplete. It also said the strongest impacts were seen among people aged 45 and older, with those 65 and older accounting for the largest share of deaths.

Paris and its surrounding region were hit especially hard, with a 62.8% increase in additional deaths. The agency also reported a sharp rise in deaths at home, underscoring how heat can worsen underlying conditions outside hospitals.

AP and Le Monde both reported the updated French figure on July 3, after Santé publique France published its national mortality bulletin.

Belgium and the Netherlands

Belgian reporting on July 3 cited 1,222 excess deaths between June 18 and June 29. Of those, 530 were among people aged 85 and older.

Belgium’s Risk Management Group described the mortality spike as unprecedented and said the peak daily death count was the highest since the first Covid wave. The reporting also framed the numbers as part of a wider political debate over heat preparedness.

The Netherlands was also included in the cross-country tally after reporting put its heatwave excess deaths at about 480, mainly among elderly people. The Dutch figure pushed the combined total across the three countries to about 3,727, which is close to the rounded 3,700 figure used in early reporting.

Why the toll may rise

Public-health officials routinely warn that excess-death counts lag behind the hottest days because registration data and cause-of-death information arrive gradually.

That matters here because France has already said its figure is partial, and the Belgian and Dutch numbers were reported as provisional. The final totals could move higher as paper death certificates and other records are added.

Public-health and policy stakes

The numbers are already feeding scrutiny over how well France, Belgium and the Netherlands are preparing for extreme heat.

The burden appears to have fallen most heavily on older adults, especially people 65 and older in France and people 85 and older in Belgium. Researchers and officials are also watching whether the final counts will approach or exceed earlier heatwave benchmarks, including France’s 2003 disaster.

More broadly, the figures are a reminder that heatwave mortality is not limited to deaths recorded as heatstroke. A surge in excess deaths can show how extreme temperatures intensify heart, respiratory and other underlying conditions, especially among vulnerable people.

What to watch next

The next updates are likely to come from revised French mortality tables as more complete registration data arrives.

Officials may also issue further clarification from Belgium or the Netherlands on whether the provisional counts are revised. Epidemiological attribution studies could later quantify how much climate change affected the likelihood or severity of the event.

For now, the combined reporting suggests the late-June heatwave was a significant mortality event across western Europe, with the clearest impacts in France, Belgium and the Netherlands and the final toll still unresolved.