France likely to face third heatwave of the year from this weekend

Météo-France says France is likely to face another heatwave from this weekend, extending a run of exceptional summer heat that has already strained hospitals, raised wildfire danger and been linked to about 1,000 excess deaths during the late-June episode.

The forecast comes after temperatures have already surged unusually early in the season. France experienced an early heatwave in May, then the current historic spell began on June 17, according to Le Monde. The latest warning suggests the country may move straight into another hot episode after only a brief midweek easing.

Weekend forecast

According to the forecast cited by Le Monde, temperatures are expected to fall across France on Wednesday and Thursday before rising again on Friday. By Sunday, heatwave-level conditions are expected first in the south, with the hottest weather then possibly spreading farther west and into the Paris region next week.

Météo-France forecaster Patrick Galois said heatwave-level temperatures are likely in the south this weekend. Le Monde reported that Sunday could bring 35C or higher across the southern half of France, with peaks of 36C to 37C around Bordeaux, Toulouse and Agen.

Some forecast scenarios point to even stronger heat next week, with highs of 38C to 40C possible in parts of the south, west and Paris region. Météo-France has said the orange heatwave alert is expected to be lifted for all French departments on Thursday, but it could be reactivated if the new hot spell intensifies.

A key uncertainty remains how the episode will be classified. Météo-France said the coming stretch could still be treated as a continuation of the current heatwave if temperatures do not fall enough, rather than a distinct third heatwave of the year.

Health and emergency pressure

The renewed warning lands just days after French hospitals were described as being at a tipping point during seven days of intense heat. Le Monde reported that emergency plans were escalated and non-urgent care was postponed as services came under strain.

France’s public-health authorities later gave their first estimate of the mortality impact from the late-June episode, placing excess deaths at about 1,000. Le Monde reported that most of those deaths were among people 65 and older, and that deaths at home rose during the heatwave.

That makes the new forecast a public-health issue as much as a weather story. Older adults, people with chronic illness and others vulnerable to heat face another period of elevated risk if the hot spell develops as expected.

Fire and drought risk

The continuing heat is also worsening drought stress in several departments and keeping wildfire danger elevated. Dry, hot conditions can quickly increase pressure on local emergency services, especially if winds strengthen or rainfall remains scarce.

Le Monde also reported that the Mediterranean Sea is about 6C to 8C above normal, which is helping reinforce the heat outlook. That adds another layer of concern for southern France and nearby areas already coping with extreme weather.

What to watch next

The next official signals will be whether Météo-France reissues orange alerts, how intense the weekend peak becomes in the south, and whether the warmth spreads into the west and Paris region early next week.

Officials and forecasters will also be watching for any updated public-health tally from Santé Publique France, along with renewed fire-risk alerts and signs of pressure on hospitals and emergency departments.