HPV vaccination linked to near-zero cervical-cancer death risk before 30

Study findings

A new study published in The Lancet says girls vaccinated against HPV at age 12 or 13 now face an almost zero risk of dying from cervical cancer before the age of 30 in England.

Researchers from Queen Mary University of London, with funding from Cancer Research UK, analysed official cancer mortality and vaccination data for women aged 20 to 34. Their estimates suggest HPV vaccination has already prevented nearly 200 young women from dying from cervical cancer in England.

The analysis also found there were no cervical-cancer deaths among women aged 20 to 24 in England between 2020 and 2024. For women aged 30 to 34, vaccinated women had a 63% lower relative risk of death from cervical cancer.

How the programme developed

England introduced the HPV vaccine for girls in 2008, and the programme was later expanded to boys. The new study looks back across that rollout and measures the effect in mortality terms, rather than only tracking infections or pre-cancer changes.

That matters because HPV causes the vast majority of cervical cancers. The report adds a harder public-health outcome to the case for vaccination: fewer deaths, not just fewer infections.

Why the result matters

The findings arrive as the NHS and government try to push cervical cancer toward elimination as a public-health problem. The reporting says the NHS ambition is to eliminate cervical cancer by 2040, with vaccination and screening as the central tools.

The WHO elimination targets cited in the coverage are 90% HPV vaccination coverage by age 15, 70% screening coverage and 90% treatment coverage for cervical disease by 2030. Public-health leaders say those goals depend on keeping uptake high.

The study is also relevant because uptake has weakened in recent years. The reporting puts national HPV vaccination coverage at around 75%, with London closer to 60%, a gap that could blunt the gains seen so far.

Official response and next steps

The reporting says the Department of Health and Social Care is rolling out catch-up HPV vaccination through community pharmacies and HPV self-testing kits for people who do not come forward for screening.

That effort reflects a broader message from NHS and government figures: the vaccine is working, but the system still needs to reach more people on time. The public-health risk is not that HPV vaccination failed; it is that lower coverage could slow or even reverse progress if too many young people miss their shots or screening.

The study’s timing also matters because it gives a new mortality benchmark just as campaigners argue for stronger prevention efforts. If vaccination and screening stay high, the evidence suggests cervical-cancer deaths before 30 can remain extremely rare. If coverage slips, the gains may be harder to sustain.

What the study adds

The report strengthens one of the clearest arguments for adolescent HPV vaccination: it is not only preventing infections and pre-cancers, but measurably reducing deaths before age 30.

For health systems, that makes the next challenge straightforward but difficult in practice: maintain high vaccination coverage, keep screening participation strong, and use catch-up and self-testing measures to close gaps before they become avoidable deaths.