Oil and gas supplies could take months to return to normal after Iran deal to open Strait of Hormuz

Oil and gas markets may begin to stabilize quickly after a U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the recovery in physical supply is likely to take far longer. Energy experts cited by the Associated Press said normal flows through the chokepoint could take months to return.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important energy routes in the world, handling about one-fifth of global crude oil trade. Even with a political agreement in place, the mechanics of restoring regular shipping, rebuilding confidence among shipowners and clearing the waterway are expected to slow the process.

Why the recovery will lag

The Guardian reported that mine clearance alone could take up to seven weeks. It also said more than 160 crude tankers remain stranded in the Gulf, underscoring how much disruption has built up while the route has been unsafe or uncertain.

That backlog matters because shipping will not resume at normal levels simply because a deal has been announced. Insurers, charterers and vessel operators typically wait for stable security conditions, clear transit rules and evidence that passage is safe before returning in force.

Producers still face restart delays

The slow return to normal is not only a shipping problem. The Guardian said oil production infrastructure in Iraq and Kuwait still needs a significant ramp-up, which means supply from Gulf producers may recover unevenly even after the strait reopens.

Gas flows could take longer still. The Guardian reported that Iranian strikes damaged Qatar’s LNG facilities, adding repair and restart work in a region that is central to global liquefied natural gas trade.

Shipping groups remain cautious

The New York Post reported that shipping groups including BIMCO and the Japanese Shipowners' Association remain wary of sending vessels through the strait immediately. Their concerns center on safety, tolls and the terms under which ships would be allowed to pass.

That report also said Iran has proposed joint control with Oman and a fee regime after a grace period, which adds another layer of uncertainty for shipowners trying to judge when the route will truly be back to normal.

Market relief, then physical recovery

The market reaction may improve before the logistics do. Traders can respond quickly to the prospect of a safer route, but the broader energy system still depends on tankers, insurance, port access, mine clearance and restart schedules.

That split helps explain why some coverage points to a short-term easing in fuel prices even as the supply chain itself remains impaired. The disagreement is not over whether relief is coming, but over how fast it reaches consumers compared with how long it takes for ships and cargoes to move normally again.

What to watch next

The main questions are whether the reopening deal is formally signed and published, when commercial vessels actually resume regular transits and what security or inspection regime will govern the passage.

Governments and traders are also watching for producer guidance from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar on how quickly they can raise output and LNG exports. Until those details are clear, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain a source of energy-market volatility even if the immediate crisis has eased.