Oil Heads for Weekly Gain as Gulf Supply Risks Keep Hormuz Traffic Low

Oil was headed for a weekly gain on Thursday as renewed fighting and shipping disruption around the Strait of Hormuz kept a geopolitical risk premium in crude markets.

Barron's reported that Brent crude was down 0.2% at $76.18 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate was down 0.1% at $72.02 in early European trading. Even with those modest declines, both benchmarks were still on track to rise about 5% for the week.

Traffic through Hormuz remains subdued

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important chokepoints for oil and gas shipments, and market coverage said traffic through it remained low. Saxo Bank analysts said no large commodity-laden vessels were seen transiting the waterway.

AP separately reported that tanker traffic through the strait had essentially stopped after renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and attacks on commercial vessels. The Joint Maritime Information Center, which is overseen by the U.S. Navy, urged ships to use the southern route through Omani territorial waters instead.

Latest developments in the Gulf

AP reported on Thursday morning that unclaimed airstrikes in southern Iran and renewed retaliation across the Gulf kept tensions elevated. U.S. Central Command said its strikes on Iran followed what it described as Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the strait.

The reporting left the core dispute unchanged. Iran says it should control passage and charge fees, while the U.S. and regional partners insist the strait must remain open to all shipping.

What the market is watching

The immediate question for traders is whether the shipping disruption stays contained or develops into a broader supply shock. Further interference in Hormuz could tighten global oil supply and keep crude’s risk premium in place.

The shipping consequences also matter beyond crude prices. Tanker operators and insurers face higher costs and more routing uncertainty if vessels avoid the strait or divert through other waters.

The International Energy Agency added another layer to the market backdrop, saying renewed exchanges of fire in the Gulf threaten oil-market normalization. It said global oil supply rose to 98.8 million barrels per day in June as flows resumed through Hormuz, showing how quickly supply conditions can improve when the route is open.

That makes the latest flare-up especially relevant for energy traders. If tanker traffic remains subdued, the market could continue to price in a security premium. If conditions calm and shipping resumes more normally, part of that gain could unwind.

For now, traders are watching three things: whether tanker traffic through the strait recovers, whether new U.S., Iranian or maritime advisories alter shipping routes, and whether crude extends its weekly gain if tensions stay high.