Oil may move through the Strait of Hormuz first, leaving fertilizer supplies stranded

Reporting on the Strait of Hormuz points to a staged reopening, with oil cargoes expected to move before fertilizer shipments and some LNG flows, according to AP and MarketWatch. The sequencing would give crude markets earlier relief, while farm inputs and other industrial cargoes could remain constrained for longer.

The Strait is one of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints, and the war-related disruption has affected a wide mix of cargoes moving out of the Persian Gulf. Even if the route reopens, the return to normal traffic is expected to be uneven. Shipping, insurance and port logistics may all recover at different speeds.

Oil first, other cargoes later

MarketWatch reported Tuesday that oil cargoes are likely to resume before fertilizer shipments. The report said roughly 40 vessels carrying fertilizer-related cargoes or inputs were still stranded, leaving urea and sulfur shipments among the flows facing the longest delays.

That matters because fertilizer supply chains do not have the same kind of cushion that oil markets do. If tanker traffic restarts before the fertilizer fleet clears, crude and fuel buyers could see faster improvement while farmers and fertilizer importers keep waiting for supply to normalize.

AP reported separately that oil and gas supplies could take months to return to normal after the Iran deal announcement. The wire service said stranded tankers, insurance issues and slow restart timing are likely to keep markets disrupted even after the first vessels begin moving again.

A reopening in stages

The underlying report is not describing an immediate snapback. It suggests the Strait may reopen in stages, with the safest and easiest cargoes moving first and more complicated flows lagging behind.

That is consistent with the broader reporting around the deal. The reported agreement would reopen the passage and ease the wartime shipping disruption, but that does not automatically restore full schedules, normal routing or pre-conflict volumes.

Shipping firms and insurers are likely to wait for clearer security conditions before committing vessels back onto standard Hormuz routes. Even where the waterway is open, carriers may move cautiously until the risk picture is clearer.

Fertilizer, LNG and the wider supply chain

The delay in fertilizer flows is especially important for farmers and food buyers. AP said the conflict disrupted crude, refined fuel, fertilizer, food and other goods, and that higher prices for gas, groceries and flights are likely to outlast the war.

MarketWatch said LNG is also affected, and that damaged Qatari facilities are delaying a return to full production until later in the year. That means the restart problem is not limited to oil alone; it reaches across several Gulf export streams that feed global energy and industrial supply chains.

The result could be a mismatched recovery. Oil markets may get some relief first, but fertilizer and LNG buyers may continue to face shortages, delays or elevated costs after crude cargoes are already flowing again.

What happened and why it matters

The reported deal follows a period of intense disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a large share of Gulf energy exports. AP reported over the weekend and again Tuesday that the effects of the conflict are likely to linger for months even after a formal reopening.

MarketWatch added that fertilizer cargoes are particularly vulnerable because there are no large strategic fertilizer reserves comparable to oil stockpiles. That makes fertilizer markets less able to absorb a sudden interruption and slower to recover once traffic resumes.

The broader stakes extend beyond commodity traders. If fertilizer and fuel costs stay elevated, the effects can move through to farm budgets, food prices and other industrial inputs even if oil futures begin to stabilize sooner.

What to watch next

The immediate questions are whether the reported agreement is fully implemented on schedule, how quickly tankers are cleared through Hormuz, and whether fertilizer vessels remain queued behind crude and refined-product traffic.

Also unclear is how much of the reported Qatari LNG damage has actually reduced output, and how long shipping firms will wait before restoring normal routing. Official guidance from producers, shippers and insurers will matter as much as the political announcement.

For now, the best-supported reading is that the Strait may reopen unevenly. Oil could be first back through the passage, but fertilizer and LNG cargoes may need more time before supply conditions normalize.