Oil Price Today (July 3): Crude oil heads for 4th weekly loss on Hormuz traffic, US-Iran talks

Crude oil prices were under pressure on July 3 as market coverage pointed to a fourth straight weekly loss for Brent, with traders responding to stronger tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and continued US-Iran diplomacy.

The latest move reflects a shift in the near-term risk premium. Traffic through the key shipping corridor has improved enough to ease immediate fears of disruption, even as Iranian officials continue to issue warnings and the diplomatic backdrop remains unsettled.

Hormuz traffic steadies

A Wall Street Journal live update said daily vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had settled into a new normal, with crossings averaging roughly 40 vessels a day so far this week and running in a 30 to 60 range, according to Kpler.

That matters because the strait is one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. When ship flow is constrained, traders often price in higher supply risk. When traffic normalizes, that premium can fade quickly.

The reported improvement in vessel flow has helped push crude lower even though the region remains tense.

Diplomacy keeps pressure on the risk premium

Market coverage also pointed to continuing US-Iran talks as another reason prices have eased. An Associated Press report said Iran’s joint military command warned oil tankers to use approved routes through the strait or face a forceful response.

The same AP report said the warning came as talks involving the U.S. and Iran continued, with Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry describing the discussions as making positive progress.

That combination has left traders weighing conflicting signals: more stable shipping conditions on one hand, and fresh military warnings on the other.

What traders are watching

The immediate focus is whether tanker traffic stays elevated into the weekly close. If crossings remain near current levels, the market is likely to keep pricing in less disruption risk.

Traders are also watching for any official statement from U.S. or Iranian negotiators that could shift sentiment again. A clearer diplomatic signal could deepen the recent decline, while a renewed escalation could quickly restore part of the risk premium.

For now, the market is treating the Strait of Hormuz as less of an active shock point than it was earlier this week. That has been enough to leave Brent on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline and keep WTI under pressure as well.