Rain deficit now at 43%, likely to end at over 10%

India’s rainfall deficit stood at 43% as of June 27, according to reporting that cites India Meteorological Department data, even as forecasters expect the gap to narrow when the southwest monsoon spreads further across the country.

The latest reporting says the season could still end more than 10% below normal. The weak start has been linked to El Nino conditions, while the Indian Ocean Dipole is not expected to provide a compensating boost this year.

Deficit widened through late June

Economic Times reported on June 24 that India’s rainfall deficit was 42% at that point, and that the government had already drawn up contingency plans for 315 districts vulnerable to low rainfall.

By June 27, Times of India reported the deficit at 43%. The paper said the shortfall should ease as monsoon coverage expands next month, but that the seasonal total may still finish below normal.

Monsoon advance expected

IMD-linked reporting on June 28 said the southwest monsoon is likely to advance further into several northern states over the next five to six days.

The coverage said rainfall and thunderstorms were expected to increase across parts of north, east, west and south India as the monsoon moves ahead.

Why it matters

The shortfall has immediate implications for rain-fed farmers, district-level crop planning and irrigation demand. Areas already flagged under contingency planning remain exposed if the monsoon’s recovery comes too slowly.

The next key check will be whether the rainfall deficit narrows quickly enough in early July to avoid a double-digit seasonal shortfall, and whether the government expands its contingency response beyond the 315 districts already identified.