Return to pre-crisis oil and gas supplies months away even if Strait of Hormuz reopens

Market relief, slower physical recovery

Oil and gas markets eased after the announcement of a U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts and shipping groups say the physical reset in global flows is likely to lag far behind the headline.

AP reported that oil exports may still take weeks or months to normalize, while the Guardian said full oil and gas export volumes could stay below pre-crisis levels for months and possibly into 2027. The New York Post separately quoted shipping groups warning that the deal still leaves too many unanswered questions about safe passage and operating rules.

That gap between the market reaction and the actual movement of cargoes is the core of the story. Prices can adjust quickly on expectations, but tanker routing, insurer approval, port coordination and any needed repairs all have to catch up before flows fully recover.

Why traffic will not restart overnight

AP said the strait remains congested, with roughly 500 ships in the area, and that mine threats and territorial tensions mean navigation will not return to normal quickly. The report said a cautious return of tankers, plus mine clearance, could stretch recovery over months.

The Guardian reported that Brent crude fell about 5% to below $83 a barrel and European gas prices dropped about 6% after the announcement. Even so, it said details of implementation remain unclear, including safe-passage arrangements and the broader political dispute around Iran's nuclear program.

The New York Post quoted BIMCO's Jakob Larsen as saying the announcement does not yet provide enough detail on timing, protocols or safety for ships to resume transit with confidence. It also said the Japanese Shipowners' Association wants more transparency before increasing activity again.

The remaining bottlenecks

Several practical hurdles still stand between a diplomatic announcement and a normal shipping pattern. War-risk insurance coverage has to be restored, vessel operators need confidence that transit rules are clear, and shipping schedules have to be rebuilt after weeks of disruption.

The New York Post reported that around 600 vessels, including about 250 oil tankers, remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. It also said Iran has threatened attacks, mining of the strait and a toll system that could cost up to $2 million per tanker, though the exact terms of any deal remain unclear in the other reports.

Liquefied natural gas faces a similar lag. Even if the waterway is formally reopened, LNG cargoes, tankers and terminals still need time to resume regular operations and clear any backlog.

What analysts are watching next

The key near-term test is not the announcement itself, but whether tankers actually begin moving again at scale. That will depend on formal implementation details, insurer decisions and whether shipping companies judge the route safe enough to re-enter.

The open questions are still straightforward but decisive: when the reopening is formally signed and enforced, which insurers restore full coverage first, how quickly stranded tankers and LNG cargoes move, and whether any production sites or terminals need repairs before exports normalize.

For now, the reporting points to a partial market reprieve rather than a full reset. The strait may reopen on paper before global oil and gas supply fully catches up in practice.