Return to pre-crisis oil and gas supplies months away even if Strait of Hormuz reopens

The announcement of a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has eased pressure on oil and gas markets, but a return to pre-crisis supply levels is still expected to take months.

Traders, shipping operators and refiners are now focused on the slower physical reset behind the headlines: getting tankers moving again, restoring marine insurance cover, restarting production and repairing damaged infrastructure. That means prices can stabilize before the underlying flows fully recover.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. AP said it carried roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply before the disruption, underscoring why even a reopening announcement does not immediately restore normal trade.

Brent crude fell to about $83 a barrel after the announcement, down from a crisis peak of $126, while wholesale gas prices fell by 6%, according to Guardian reporting. AP said Brent was still around $83.89 per barrel and US crude around $80.85 after the announcement, both above pre-war levels.

What the deal changes

Guardian live coverage said President Donald Trump announced on social media that the deal was “complete” and that ships were moving out of the strait, but formal confirmation was still pending signing. Guardian reporting also said the reopening framework includes a 60-day mine-removal period before the waterway fully reopens.

That timeline matters for the market response. Guardian said oil exports may begin recovering in July, with about 80% of crude flows resuming by the end of the third quarter if implementation proceeds as expected.

Why recovery will lag

AP said shipping, refining, insurance and production logistics remain disrupted, which is why energy experts expect normalization to take months rather than days. Tanker operators need to reposition vessels, insurers need to restore coverage and buyers need confidence that transit conditions will stay secure.

The pace of recovery is also likely to vary by exporter. AP said Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are likely to recover faster than Iraq because of differences in export routes and the complexity of field restarts.

Gas supplies could take even longer to normalize. Guardian reported that damage to Qatar’s gas facilities from drone strikes may delay LNG recovery for years, making the gas side of the recovery more complicated than the oil rebound.

What markets are watching

The immediate question is whether the deal is formally signed and whether the mine-clearance timetable starts on schedule. Beyond that, traders will be watching tanker movements, insurance availability and the pace at which commercial traffic resumes through the strait.

For import-dependent markets in Asia and Europe, the issue is not just crude supply. LNG disruptions, freight costs and lingering transit risk can all keep energy prices elevated even after the political announcement.

The next round of updates will likely come from official statements by US and Iranian authorities, as well as shipping data showing whether vessels are returning to the route and whether coverage is being restored.

What comes next

The key near-term signals are whether insurers reopen cover, whether shipowners resume full transits and whether Qatar’s gas facilities can be repaired quickly enough to support LNG exports.

Until those steps happen, markets may look calmer than the physical supply chain. The announcement has eased the shock, but the repair process for oil and gas flows is still only beginning.