Strait of Hormuz backlog could take weeks to clear after US-Iran deal

A reported US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is not expected to restore normal shipping quickly. Analysts and industry reporting say it could take weeks for traffic to work through the backlog built up during months of conflict.

The central issue is operational as much as political. Roughly 500 merchant vessels are still stranded, and shipowners are treating the corridor as too risky to resume at full speed.

Traffic through the strait had fallen from about 130 ships a day to near standstill during the disruption, according to Financial Times reporting. Some vessels have cautiously resumed transit, but the reopening is expected to be gradual rather than immediate.

How the bottleneck formed

The slowdown followed more than three months of conflict that interrupted one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. The Strait of Hormuz carries major flows of global oil and liquefied natural gas, so even a short disruption can ripple through freight, insurance and commodity markets.

As tensions rose, ships queued rather than risk passing through a narrow sea lane with elevated military risk. That left tankers, LNG carriers and other merchant ships waiting offshore for conditions to improve.

The result is a recovery problem as much as a security problem. Even if the political terms hold, vessels do not all move at once, and congestion can become its own bottleneck once traffic begins to restart.

What the reported deal requires

The Financial Times reported that the reopening arrangement includes Iran removing mines and waiving tolls, while the United States lifts its naval blockade.

Other outlets described the deal as part of a ceasefire-extension framework that still needs formal signing. The Guardian said the reopening depends on mine-clearing and would initially open the strait for 30 days under Iranian arrangements.

Axios reported that the agreement was announced by Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, and that a formal signing step remains ahead. Business Insider reported that Donald Trump publicly announced a deal to reopen the strait, while Iran had not yet publicly acknowledged it at the time of publication.

Why the strait matters

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most sensitive maritime chokepoints in the world. When traffic is disrupted there, the effects reach oil and LNG exporters, shipowners, insurers, freight markets and energy consumers.

That makes the reopening process more complicated than simply declaring the route open. Authorities and shipping companies still have to sequence vessels safely through the corridor and reduce the chance of an accident or attack.

Mine risk is a particular concern in a narrow passage where traffic must be carefully managed. Reporting indicates that is one reason many shipowners remain hesitant to move quickly back into the area.

Who is affected

The disruption has implications for global oil and LNG supply stability, merchant ship safety, insurance and freight costs, and the speed of recovery in energy markets.

Oil and LNG exporters are the clearest commercial losers from a closed or partially closed strait. Shipowners face delays and uncertainty. Insurers have to price the risk of a dangerous transit route. Freight rates can rise when vessels sit idle or move less efficiently.

For markets, the key point is that a reopening announcement does not instantly restore throughput. The backlog itself can keep supply chains strained even after the formal political deal is in place.

What the timeline shows

Reporting says the reopening deal emerged on June 14, 2026, alongside claims that mine-clearing and other implementation steps were still needed.

Analysts warned on the same day that the vessel backlog could take weeks to clear. That timing matters because the immediate story is not only that the strait may reopen, but that the return to normal shipping could lag far behind the announcement.

The deal also appears to be a transit-management and ceasefire framework rather than a clean reset. That leaves room for slow implementation, partial compliance or delays in the first phase of shipping normalization.

What still needs to happen

The biggest open questions are whether Iran formally signs off on the reported terms, whether mine-clearing begins on schedule and how quickly ships can safely resume transit without creating more congestion.

Markets and operators will also watch whether toll waivers or routing rules are enforced consistently. If the operating rules are unclear, shipowners may continue to hold back even after the route is declared open.

Any new attack, seizure or closure could slow the process again and send traffic back into limbo. For now, the reported deal appears to have addressed the politics of reopening before the logistics of reopening.