Strait of Hormuz still not back to normal shipping despite US-Iran deal

The United States and Iran have announced a tentative agreement to extend their ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing immediate fears of a prolonged energy shock.

But the diplomatic announcement has not yet translated into a normal return of commercial shipping. Reporting from AP and other outlets says tanker traffic, insurance cover and broader oil and gas flows are still in a slow restart rather than a clean reopening.

That gap matters because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. Before the disruption, it carried roughly a fifth of global oil and gas trade.

What the deal changes, and what it does not

AP reported that the agreement is an initial deal, not a completed reset. The implementation is expected to wait for a formal signing later in the week in Geneva, leaving shipowners and insurers with reasons to remain cautious.

The timing is crucial. Even when a route is declared open, shipping firms usually want stable rules, working insurance and a clearer security picture before they resume routine voyages.

AP also said the reopening will not immediately clear the backlog of vessels already caught in the Gulf. The political breakthrough and the operational recovery are moving on different clocks.

Why recovery could take months

Energy experts cited by AP said it could take months for oil and gas supplies to return to normal, even if the strait is formally reopened.

One reason is that ships loaded with crude have reportedly been stranded in the Persian Gulf for more than three months. Those vessels still need to move before trade patterns can normalize.

Analysts also pointed to insurance, safety and logistics as major bottlenecks. If underwriters stay hesitant or operators judge the route too risky, traffic can remain below normal even after a deal is signed.

The Guardian made the same basic point, saying pre-crisis oil and gas supply levels are still months away and that stranded vessels and damaged infrastructure will slow the restart.

Markets reacted faster than shipping

Energy markets responded quickly to the news. The Guardian reported Brent crude fell to about $82 a barrel after the deal announcement, down from a crisis peak of $126.

That move shows how much of the price surge had been driven by fear of a prolonged closure. But it does not mean the physical supply chain is fixed.

The same reporting said more than 160 vessels remained stranded and that key infrastructure in Qatar and Iraq was still offline. That leaves the recovery dependent not just on diplomacy, but on ports, terminals and shipping schedules catching up.

Shipping groups remain cautious

The New York Post reported that shipping groups including BIMCO and the Japanese Shipowners' Association remained cautious because of unresolved safety and routing issues.

Those concerns are central to whether routine traffic resumes. Even a formal reopening can leave open questions about transit rules, vessel protections and whether any fees or restrictions will be imposed.

For shipowners, the decision to send a vessel through Hormuz is commercial as well as political. If the risk premium remains elevated, normal traffic will return slowly.

What to watch next

The next major test is whether the agreement is formally signed and then translated into routine sailings.

Watch for insurers to restore cover, for shipowners to authorize regular transits and for stranded tankers to begin leaving the Gulf in volume.

Energy markets will also be watching oil and LNG prices for signs that the shift from crisis pricing to normal pricing is sticking. A sharp move lower can happen fast; a full normalization of flows usually takes longer.

For now, the deal has changed the diplomatic landscape. It has not yet restored the Strait of Hormuz to normal shipping.