Strait of Hormuz transits increase as US-Iran ceasefire holds

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has increased after the US-Iran ceasefire, according to shipping data and industry reporting, but the recovery is still incomplete and the route remains exposed to political and security risk.

Traffic rebounds

Financial Times reported on July 3 that daily transits through the strait had risen to eight by July 1, with 258 voyages recorded in the week to June 28. That marked a sharp recovery from the conflict period, when traffic had fallen to crisis lows.

The rebound follows a 60-day ceasefire framework between the United States and Iran that included reopening the waterway. The strait is one of the most important maritime chokepoints in the world, carrying oil and gas shipments out of the Gulf.

The weekly figures still show that the route has not fully normalized. FT said the week to June 28 was well above the collapse seen during the conflict, but still below prewar levels.

Tankers lead the move

The ships returning first are mainly oil tankers, including cargo that had been delayed while the crisis disrupted traffic. FT said more than 60 of the outbound vessels were Iranian ships using a US waiver for oil trade.

The increase suggests shippers are beginning to move backlog cargo out of the Gulf, but they are doing so cautiously. Industry reporting indicates that operators are balancing lower costs against the risk that security conditions could change quickly.

Costs ease, but risk remains

The shipping recovery has already changed market conditions. FT reported that tanker spot rates fell from a peak of about $500,000 a day to around $294,000 a day, while insurance costs dropped from about 7% to roughly 2% of a ship’s value.

Those moves matter for Gulf exporters such as Adnoc and other cargo owners that depend on the strait to move crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Lower freight and insurance costs can support flows, but only if shipowners believe the route will stay open.

Who controls passage?

Uncertainty has not disappeared even as traffic improves. The Wall Street Journal reported that crossings have stabilized at roughly 30 to 60 a day, or about 40 vessels daily, over the past week.

WSJ also said confusion persists over who authorizes passage through the strait. Iran claims exclusive control, while US forces have said by radio that no country in the region has the authority to control or close the waterway.

That dispute matters because routing decisions are made vessel by vessel. Even without fresh attacks, competing claims over authority can slow movement and keep risk premiums elevated.

Claims and counterclaims

AP separately reported on a claim by Iranian state television that a foreign ship had run aground in the strait. AP said investigators found the vessel, Arista, was tied to Iran.

According to AP, the ship was previously known as Gauja, was sanctioned by the US Treasury in 2025 and had been operating between domestic Iranian ports while stranded near Hormuz Island since March.

The episode underlines how quickly the Strait of Hormuz can become a site of disputed narratives as well as disputed control. That matters for shipping companies trying to judge whether the recovery is durable or temporary.

What to watch next

The main question is whether transit counts keep rising over the next several days or stall below prewar levels. The next shipping data points will show whether more operators are willing to send cargo through the route.

Officials have not publicly settled the broader question of who, if anyone, can authorize passage through the strait. Any renewed attacks, seizures or route restrictions could quickly reverse the recovery and push freight and insurance costs higher again.

For now, the data show a clear rebound from the conflict lows. They also show a chokepoint that remains fragile, contested and central to global energy flows.