Two key things still stand between Strait of Hormuz traffic and prewar levels

Ships are beginning to move again through the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S.-Iran interim agreement, but the route is not back to normal. New reporting points to two main bottlenecks before traffic can return to prewar levels: confidence that vessels can pass safely and a meaningful drop in war-risk insurance costs.

AP said stranded ships have started transiting again for the first time in 110 days, with 17 crossings tracked over two days by Lloyd's List Intelligence. The same reporting said about 550 merchant ships were preparing to exit the Persian Gulf, a sign that traffic is reopening but remains far from a full reset.

A slow reopening

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important oil and gas chokepoints, so even a partial reopening matters for global energy flows. But the reopening is uneven, and the main corridor is still not fully usable.

AP said the central route remains blocked by roughly 80 naval mines, forcing ships onto narrower alternative routes through Iranian and Omani waters. That limits capacity and keeps the route more fragile than normal commercial lanes.

AP added that a full reopening of the central corridor could take several weeks or months. In the meantime, the strait is functioning as a constrained passage, not a return to prewar operations.

The early traffic also appears selective. Reporting cited at least 12 tankers, including three Saudi-flagged supertankers, moving through the strait shortly after the deal, suggesting commercial movement is restarting without yet normalizing.

The insurance hurdle

MarketWatch identified war-risk insurance as one of the two key conditions that still need to improve before traffic can recover to prewar levels. During the conflict, premiums surged sharply, rising from a prewar level of about 0.02% to as high as 2%.

That kind of jump changes routing decisions. Even if the political agreement has lowered the immediate threat, shipowners and cargo interests still have to decide whether the economics of a transit through the strait make sense.

MarketWatch said traffic is likely to recover gradually rather than immediately because some tankers remain trapped in the Persian Gulf and logistics are still backed up. The insurance market has to catch up with the security picture before traffic can normalize.

Security, fees and the next test

The physical security question is the other major hurdle. Until the central passage is cleared and more vessels are willing to commit to the route, traffic will remain constrained to narrower alternatives.

Guardian reporting added a possible future cost layer: Iran plans to impose maritime fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz in two months. If that move goes ahead, it could complicate the economics of the recovery even further.

The same reporting said the U.S. has lifted its blockade on Iran, which has eased tanker movement. That helps explain why ships are starting to move again, even if the route is still not back to prewar conditions.

The stakes go well beyond the shipping lane itself. A slower reopening can keep global oil transport constrained and delay price normalization. High war-risk premiums can also keep ships out even after formal reopening.

What to watch next

The next sign of a faster recovery will be whether more tankers choose the strait under the new security arrangement. Another key signal will be whether war-risk premiums fall enough to change routing decisions more broadly.

Watch also for progress on the central corridor itself. If the mines are cleared and the main channel becomes usable again, the route can handle more normal traffic. Until then, the reopening is real, but incomplete.

Maritime data firms will remain important for tracking the pace of the recovery because official traffic figures are not yet settled. For now, the picture is one of cautious reopening: ships are moving, but security, insurance and possible new fees still stand between the strait and prewar flow levels.