U.S. oil market stays steadier as Hormuz shipping resumes unevenly

Oil traders are seeing only partial relief after tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz started to recover unevenly following the U.S.-Iran peace deal. The reopening has reduced the immediate risk of a sharp price spike, but it has not restored normal flow through one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints.

The latest reporting suggests the market is steadier than many traders feared because ships are moving again, but the return is uneven and the supply outlook remains tight. Crude prices have not broken sharply higher or lower, even as operators, refiners and buyers continue to wait for a more predictable pattern of traffic.

Uneven reopening

The Wall Street Journal reported that the reopening of the strait has been slow and choppy. It said 13 tankers crossed on Thursday, the highest count since early June, before traffic fell again on Friday.

That pattern points to a partial normalization rather than a full reset. The strait is still functioning, but the flow is irregular enough to leave tanker owners, insurers and oil buyers uncertain about how quickly conditions will settle.

The Journal also reported that Iran has created a Persian Gulf Strait Authority and is requiring ships to apply 48 hours before crossing. That procedural change is one reason the recovery appears uneven rather than smooth.

Market reaction

Barron’s reported that three Saudi-flagged supertankers crossed Hormuz carrying more than six million barrels of crude. It said Brent crude rose 0.7% to $80.44 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate rose 0.8% to $76.43 a barrel, a modest move rather than the kind of spike traders had feared.

MarketWatch similarly reported that Brent and WTI remained near recent lows while markets weighed conflicting signals about the reopening. It said the new Iranian transit requirements and the broader cease-fire news kept prices volatile, but not dramatically higher.

The takeaway from the market reaction is that traders see some improvement in supply access, but not enough certainty to call the disruption over. That is helping keep the market from reacting in panic, while still leaving a risk premium in place.

Why the market is still tight

Even with more tankers moving, the broader supply picture has not fully healed. WSJ said global oil inventories have dropped significantly, which limits the buffer available if shipping stumbles again.

The same report said restocking those inventories could keep prices elevated even if traffic improves. In other words, the market may remain supported by the need to rebuild depleted stockpiles, not just by the threat of further disruption.

The supply recovery also extends beyond shipping. WSJ reported that oil production in Iraq and Kuwait may take four to six months to return to prewar levels, which means full normalization of the region’s oil system could lag the reopening of the waterway.

Regional and shipping stakes

The Strait of Hormuz is central to global oil trade, so even a partial recovery matters for tanker routing, freight costs and downstream fuel markets. When traffic is disrupted there, the effects can spread quickly to refiners and buyers in Asia and Europe.

The reporting also suggests that ship operators are still adjusting to new rules. WSJ said the Iranian transit procedures require advance applications, and Barron’s reported that Iran agreed not to charge for passage through the strait for 60 days under the memorandum of understanding.

Those details matter because shipping behavior is shaped by more than crude prices. Tanker owners care about timing, paperwork, fees, security and whether the path looks reliable enough to commit a vessel.

What happens next

The next few days will show whether the 48-hour permit rule remains in force, whether tanker counts keep rising toward prewar levels, and whether the U.S. and Iran follow through on the deal in a way that makes transit more predictable.

A key question is whether Friday’s slowdown was a temporary pause or a sign that traffic will remain uneven while operators test the new rules. Another is how quickly buyers and producers can rebuild inventories if flows stabilize.

The broader oil market is being steadied by partial reopening, not fully repaired by it. That leaves prices less vulnerable to a sudden shock than they were before the deal, but still sensitive to any setback in transit or output recovery.