UNCTAD says global trade kept expanding into early 2026, but rising tensions, higher costs and policy uncertainty are making the outlook more fragile.

Global trade continued to expand in early 2026, but UNCTAD says the outlook has become more fragile because of conflict, policy uncertainty and higher costs.

In its April 2026 Global Trade Update, published on April 7, the UN trade agency said goods and services trade reached a record $35 trillion in 2025, up by about $2.5 trillion from the previous year. UNCTAD said goods trade grew by roughly 7% and services trade by about 8% last year.

The report said trade growth remained solid into the first part of 2026, though services trade has started to slow. It added that growth is likely to cool later in the year as geopolitical tensions, tariff pressure and broader policy uncertainty weigh on business decisions.

UNCTAD also pointed to higher trade costs and limited fiscal space as additional risks. It said conflict in the Middle East and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could add to inflationary pressure.

At the same time, the report said some sectors are still supporting trade. AI-related goods, digital technologies and parts of the green industry continue to bolster cross-border flows.

UNCTAD’s message is that global trade is still growing, but the balance of risks has shifted more sharply to the downside.

Revision note

Initial automated publication.